US Open

The US Open

It was a great event as always at ‘Jack’s place’ as with weather conditions co operating the players found Muirfield Village a tough test, which lead to a great watch.

The event, as I seem to find myself saying most week was won by Scottie Scheffler, with the world’s number one landing his fifth title in eight starts.

What is more frightening for the rest of the field is that the Texan clearly didn’t have his A game or even his B game for most of the week, squandering a five shot lead he had opened up on Saturday, largely through making a triple bogey seven on the ninth, before again giving up a four shot lead he had started the final day with.

In the end though the Texan had enough in the tank to see off Collin Morikawa by one shot, holing a tricky down hill putt on the 72^nd hole to make a par and seal the win.

From our point of view it was a frustrating end to the week as having been on the fringes of things all week some really solid play from Sungjae Im over the weekend had moved him in to fourth place and all set to bring us a full each way return. Unfortunately though the Korean made a poor double bogey on his final hole thus tumbling him in to a four way tie for eighth.

So onwards we go and it is time for the third of the four Major’s played over consecutive months, The US Open.

This year’s edition is the 124^th playing of the event and it sees us return to Pinehurst No 2 in Pinehurst, North Carolina. A Donald Ross design this will mark the fourth occasion the revered venue has hosted the US Open following on from 1999, 2005 and 2014, which saw wins for Payne Stewart, Michael Campbell and most recently Martin Kaymer.

As to be expected of course with a Major championship the field this week is a stellar one with the market dominated by Scottie Scheffler at 3/1 or less. Scheffler is then followed Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland.

COURSE

Pinehurst No 2 was designed by Donald Ross and opened for business in 1907. In 2011 the course then underwent a thorough redesign in the hands of Crenshaw & Coore with the aim of returning it returning it to how Ross originally intended.

A par 70 measuring just over 7500 yards and featuring two par 5s, the course is not your typical US Open layout with narrow fairways and deep rough, instead if you stray from the fairway you will find yourself in sandy native areas with inconsistent wispy grass.

The greens are Ultra Dwarf Championship Bermuda.

While it is important to find the fairways here then strong iron play will be key with the course renowned for its upturned saucer like greens, which will repel inaccurate approaches in to treacherous run off areas.

Following on from this and creativity around the greens will be key. There will be no ‘hacking out of thick rough’ around the greens this week with the players having to work out the best way to handle the run off areas. Those with longer memories will remember this is where Martin Kaymer excelled in 2014 with his strategy of using his putter time and again from off the greens.

Form on other Donald Ross Courses this week will certainly be worth considering. Ross tracks used regularly on tour are Sedgefield CC home of the Wyndham Championship, East Lake, home of the Tour Championship and Detroit GC home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In addition last years host venue for the PGA Championship Oak Hill is a Ross design.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the last ten winners.

2023 Wyndham Clark

2022 Matt Fitzpatrick

2021 Jon Rahm

2020 Bryson Dechambeau

2019 Gary Woodland

2018 Brooks Koepka

2017 Brooks Koepka

2016 Dustin Johnson

2015 Jordan Spieth

2014 Martin Kaymer

So what does this tell us? Well the first thing to say of course is that with the US Open operating a course rotation system it is usually a lot tougher to identify the type of player you are looking for year in year out compared to at Augusta, or at the British Open where you know you are getting a coastal links course.

In this major though you can go from a wide open links type test one year to a narrow fairway ball strikers course the next. In addition you can also get different green types dependent on the area of the US the event is being played in.

As a result over the years as examples we have seen Jordan Spieth prosper on a more exposed coastal links type track, we have seen Rose’s elite ball striking rewarded at Merion, we have seen Dustin Johnson be last man standing at a traditional US Open type test, we have seen Koepka start his Major lovefest by bombing his way to victory at Erin Hills and we have seen Dechambeau use his length off the tee and brute strength to overpower Winged Foot. Finally we have seen Jon Rahm and most recently Matt Fitzpatrick bag his first major at courses we already knew they loved.

Whilst the skill sets and the style of player we are looking for might vary to a certain extent year in year out one thing that does connect the recent winners in that they were all having good seasons and in decent form coming in to the event.

Lets look at this in a bit more detail.

Webb Simpson had posted a top 5 finish a few weeks prior at the Wells Fargo Championship and Rose had pieced together four top tens including two top 5s on the PGA Tour that year. Rory had finished 5^th at Memorial on his previous start, Koepka had made his last 6 cuts which included a 2^nd place finish at the Valero Texas Open in 2017 and he had finished second a fortnight before winning in 2018 at Fort Worth. DJ meanwhile had done everything but win prior to his victory in 2016 with seven Top 5 finishes in the year including two in his previous two starts.

Spieth, Kaymer and McDowell had all posted victories on tour that year already, whether in the US or in Europe, the 2019 winner Gary Woodland had finished eighth at the PGA Championship two starts prior to victory and most recently Bryson Dechambeau had produced a top five finish at the PGA Championship a month prior to his success.

While Rahm had not won on the PGA Tour in 20/21 prior to his triumph he had been robbed of a victory when holding a six shot lead at Memorial in his previous start through 54 holes at the Memorial before his enforced covid WD and had been eighth at the recent PGA.

Finally and most recently last years champion Wyndham Clark had landed his maiden PGA Tour win just a few weeks before at Quail Hollow.

Picking up on Rahm finishing eighth at the PGA it is worth noting that until last year since the PGA moved to being played pre US Open the four winners of the US Open in 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022, Woodland, Dechambeau, Rahm and Fitzpatrick had all finished to ten at the PGA. This run was broken last year by Clark though who missed the cut at Oak Hill in the PGA after his win at Quail Hollow.

So in summary everyone of the past ten US Open winners had either had a victory or at least one top 5 finish on tour that season [In Bryson’s case the top five at the PGA was in the previous season as the US Open was the second event of the official 20/21 calendar] and I expect this mantra of ‘good form coming in’ to stand true again this time around.

Therefore whilst you can’t rule out victory for a ‘mid division’ player like a Glover this player would need to be someone in decent form coming in as if history is anything to go by the US Open is not the sort of event where someone does  a ‘James Hahn’ and wins after missing their previous six or seven cuts.

Whilst it is more than likely the event will be won by a bigger named player it’s worth pointing out that the US Open in recent years has seen a bunch of big three figure priced players make the frame.

These include Denny McCarthy last year, Chesson Hadley in 2019, Harman, Schauffele and Fleetwood in 2017 [yup Tommy & Xander were still going off at triple digits back then!], Lowry, Piercy and Na the year before and Cam Smith the year before that.

Go back a bit further and we saw Eric Compton finishing 2^nd here and Michael Thompson and now Real Estate Agent John Peterson making the frame at The Olympic Club, while in 2010 when Graeme McDowell was victorious at Pebble Beach unheralded Frenchman Gregory Havret chased him home.

In 2020 this was not so much the case although Will Zalatoris did make the frame at big odds however it is worth noting that 2020 did not see the opportunity for players to qualify in the same way as normal and this will no doubt have led to a more predictable flavour at the top of the leaderboard.

Again in 2021 this was not the case as the top ten was packed with big names/in form players such as Oosthuizen, English, Morikawa, Koepka, McIlroy, Schauffele, Berger and Scheffler, with only really Migliozzi and to a lesser extent Grace, breaking this stranglehold.

2022 meanwhile saw Adan Hadwin and Denny McCarthy make the frame.

As a whole though the message over the years has been clear, with some bookies going 10 or 11 places e/w don’t be afraid to back a big three figure priced player e/w if you have a hunch for them.

Finally and while the historical thought for the US Open has been that accuracy off the tee  is key prior to last year we needed to go back to Jordan Spieth’s win in 2015 to find an edition, where precision triumphed over power as the previous six winners of the event prior to Fitzpatrick, Rahm, Dechambeau, Woodland, Koepka [x2] and Johnson are all among the biggest hitters on tour.

Equally though I expect strategy to very much play its part this week and particularly allowing for the anticipated firmness of the course I am expecting shorter hitters to have a fair crack.

WEATHER FORECAST

The good news is we look set for a dry week with temperatures sat in the high 80s. Therefore we look set for Pinehurst to play to the firm, fast conditions intended.

Wind does not look to be much of an issue with only Sunday showing the potential for15mph+.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with seven players this week as follows;

BROOKS KOEPKA – 20/1 – 3pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 10. - FINISHED 26th

Let’s be honest there is one overwhelming favourite this week who goes by the name of Scottie Scheffler. With five wins in his past eight starts we are witnessing a period of domination unlike anything we have seen since the days of Tiger.

Ultimately though while everyone including me would be amazed if he isn’t in the thick of things come the weekend, as we saw to our huge benefit at Colonial recently when our man Davis Riley held him off he can be beaten.

In the spirit of this column then I will take the world’s number one on starting with Brooks Koepka.

After a win at LIV Singapore Koepka headed to Valhalla recently in the forefront of everyone’s mind, however the performance of Xander Schauffele that week coupled by a lacklustre effort from Brooks see’s him arrive at Pinehurst somewhat under the radar and at far bigger odds.

Despite this though Koepka has an awful lot in his favour this week and with a huge dollop of hindsight one would expect the anticipated firm fast test of Pinehurst to be way more to his liking than the somewhat straightforward challenge of Valhalla.

Starting then with Brooks’ credentials for Pinehurst and if we go way back to 2014, three years before he landed his first Major, he popped up here with a fourth place finish. You would think then he will be very much looking forward to returning here. Secondly I am sure it wont be lost on Koepka that he landed his third PGA Championship at the Ross designed Oak Hill last year.

The two time US Open Champion returned to action for the first time since the PGA, at LIV Houston last week, and after a couple of run of the mill days he finished off his week with a Sunday 65. Something which should see him arrive here in good spirits. In addition I can’t help but wonder if three days in Houston might not transpire to be a better warm up for this week than having been put through the ringer for four days at a testing Muirfield Village.

Koepka has shown us time and again that he is a master at hanging around on the leaderboard in a tough Major test and I am keen to have him onside this week.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA – 40/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 12 - FINISHED 6th

If we are going to side with Hideki Matsuyama we need to firstly address the elephant in the room, which is of course his fitness.

We have to accept that siding with the Japanese star comes with a risk that A, he might not tee it up at all or B, he falls foul of a back/neck issue as the week progresses. That said I can’t help feel that the ‘health risk’ is very much factored in to Hideki’s odds as if he was 100% fit he would surely deserve a spot much nearer the top of the betting.

So having trusted Hideki is healthy enough to compete what of his credentials for the week?

Well firstly of course we know he is at his best on a tough test and having landed a Green Jacket we know he can win at this level.

The 2021 Masters Champion reminded us of his pedigree earlier this year when closing with a scintillating round of 62 to bag the trophy at Riviera, while since then he has made every cut posting four further top twelve finishes, including three top eight’s, in six further starts. We know then his form is holding up well.

With his injury concerns Hideki has played sparingly since Augusta teeing it up only twice, however last week he had the perfect warm up at the Memorial finishing in eighth place and ranking in the top 30 in all key stats.

Looking in greater detail at Matsuyama’s 2024 numbers and as well as his normal strong tee to green performance, which sees him ranked third in this department it is interesting to note that he sits top off the tree for the year in strokes gained around the green, sure to be a key area this week. In addition of course as a former Masters Champion we know his lag putting is strong.

Finally from a course correlation point of view we can take comfort from the fact that Hideki has performed strongly at the Ross designed East Lake over the years.

I’ve no doubt in my mind a healthy Matsuyama is capable of adding to his one Major to date and with his form so strong this year I am happy to risk him and his health at the odds this week.

SAHITH THEEGALA –  55/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 32nd

Moving on and I will take a chance that Pinehurst brings out the creativity in Sahith Theegala.

Theegala has been a breath of fresh air since he joined the PGA Tour wish his shot shaping and creativity a joy to, which. Perhaps key for this week he is a player who can shape shots both ways, something, which by all accounts will be required at Pinehurst.

A one time tour winner to date at the Fortinet last Fall Theegala has been knocking on the door of title number two this year with four top six finishes to his name including two runner up spots.

Furthermore Sahith was right in the mix at Valhalla heading in to the final day before a disappointing Sunday saw him slip down to 12^th. We have to think though that experience will stand him in good stead. In addition a look back at last year shows us that he has a top ten at Augusta on the CV so we know he is the man for a big occasion.

Looking at Theegala’s stats for 2024 and he has been really solid in pretty much all departments ranking 20^th off the tee, 23^rd from tee to green, 22^nd in approach play and 21^st in putting. Strangely the one area he has struggled in according to the stats is ‘around the greens’ for which he currently ranks outside the top 100. I say strangely as those who watch the PGA Tour coverage closely will know we are regularly seeing Sahith holing out from off the green or getting up and down from impossible looking areas very much in the Spieth mould.

Sahith produced a solid week at Memorial finishing in a tie for 12^th where he ranked second off the tee, 12^th in approach and indeed 16^th around the greens so he arrives here in good nick and I can see him enjoying a big week here.

SI WOO KIM –  80/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 12 - FINISHED 32nd

Next cab off the rank for me this week is Si Woo Kim.

The youngest ever Players Champion is quietly putting a really solid 2024 together without having really threatened to land a trophy.

Currently sitting 28^th in the Fedex Cup standings Si Woo has missed only one cut this year, at the recent PGA, while he has seven top 20 finishes to his name, with a best of sixth at his beloved Sawgrass.

Talking of Sawgrass and when winning the trophy there in 2017 Si Woo showed us how strong he is around the greens, getting ‘up & down from everywhere’ and despite his continuing struggles once on the dance floor he once more ranks strongly around the greens this year, which should hold him in good stead this week.

The Korean landed his maiden tour title at the Ross designed Sedgefield CC and he continues to deliver the goods on his regular returns to the Wyndham, from that point of view then he should be relishing another Donald Ross test this week.

Currently ranked sixth on tour from tee to green and ninth in approach play Si Woo delivered another strong tee to green and scrambling performance at the Memorial last week when finishing 15^th and if he can just find some comfort on Ross’ Bermuda greens this week we could see a really big performance from him.

CAMERON DAVIS – 1pt E/W – 250/1 – 1/5 odds 1^st 10. - FINISHED MC

Moving on and I shall finish with a couple of triple digit each way plays starting with Cameron Davis.

It is fair to say you never quite know what you are going to get from Davis from one week to the next, something which is reflected in the fact that last year he finished sixth at TPC Sawgrass on the back of six missed cuts, whereas this year in the Players he posted rounds of 79 and 82 having posted an 18^th at Bay Hill the week before. Ultimately though on his day the Aussie is a class performer who is capable of mixing it with big names as he showed us when landing his home open back in 2017.

So why risk him this week then? Well put quite simply this really does look a perfect test for him. Putting the strands together and firstly we can immediately take heart from the fact that Cameron landed his lone PGA Tour title to date at the Donald Ross designed Detroit GC at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Secondly he showed us again how much he enjoys a Ross layout when bagging a fourth place finish at last years PGA Championship at Oak Hill.

Also on the Ross front we have a couple of strong performances at Sedgefield CC in the Wyndham including a seventh last year.

Finally from a correlating course point of view I like the fact that he posted a strong 13^th place in the CJ Cup at Congaree last fall, a wide open North Carolina track, in which I can see plenty of similarities to this weeks test.

With firm conditions and native sand areas greeting wayward tee shots this week there are plenty of references to Pinehurst having an Australian Sand belt type feel to it so I expect Cameron to feel very much at home here.

2024 has been a pretty ho-hum season for Davis to date however he popped up with a 12^th place at Augusta and having qualified on the Longest Day for Pinehurst in a Play Off at the expense of Aussie legend Adam Scott I expect him to make the most of his opportunity.

KURT KITAYAMA –  150/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED MC

Next I’ll take a chance on another player I expect to enjoy the challenge of Pinehurst, Kurt Kitayama.

Similarly to Davis, Kitayama is a mercurial player prone to great inconsistency, but one who at his best can mix it with the games leading names. This is something of course, which was best shown when he fended off a stellar field to land his biggest trophy to date at Bay Hill last year.

As well as proving that he has the metal to take down a quality field what that victory also showed us is that Kurt does enjoy a tough test of golf and, significantly for this week he demonstrated that again last year when posting a 3- under total to finish fourth at the PGA Championship on the Ross designed Oak Hill.

As well as performing strongly on tracks where ‘par is your friend’ Kitayama’s also seems to enjoy a venue, which has a bit of room off the tee, a links type feel to it and/or where wind can be an issue. He posted a victory of course on a windy test in Oman, while since he gained his full time PGA Tour card he has posted a third at the Honda, a second in Mexico and a second at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Significantly for this week he was also second in 2022 at the CJ Cup in South Carolina at the Correlating Congaree.

While Kurt is yet to produce anything better than an eighth place in 2024 he has been solid from tee to green ranking 18^th in this department and 16^th in approach play and having blown off the cobwebs at Muirfield Village last week after a break since the PGA, I expect him to perform strongly this week on a venue, which should be very much to his liking.

WEBB SIMPSON –  275/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 12 - FINISHED MC

Finally this week I shall take a speculative roll of the dice at huge odds on Webb Simpson.

The 2012  US Open Champion is something of a forgotten man these days and to be honest I was amazed to see that he is still only 38yrs old. From that point of view then I am sure that he feels he still has plenty of golf left ahead of him.

The 2022/23 season saw Webb struggle as he finished outside the top 125 with just two top tens to his name. Tellingly though for this week one of those came at his home from home, the Ross designed Sedgefield CC where he is a former winner.

That link with Sedgefield off course leads us to the main reason for siding with Webb this week, which is the fact that we are in his home state and at a course he has a great affinity with.

Simpson was not exempt for this week so he headed to Final Qualifying in Durham, North Carolina last week and duly made it through with rounds of 67 69 to book his spot.

A delighted Simpson said afterwards “This was special for me because I love Pinehurst, I love No 2, I wanted to be there”.

Webb went on to add "It's a golf course that I feel like I can play really well, and my game is getting better, so there's a lot of things trending in the right direction for me. I'm just thankful that this validated what I'm doing."

Hailing initially from Raleigh an hour or so away Simpson and his family own a second home in the area where he grew up playing a lot, so this will be very much a home game for him and he is sure to have huge local support.

Granted Webb is yet to produce anything of note this year however he is consistently making cuts, while he also ranks in the top ten on tour around the greens. Needless to say a second US Open would be hugely unlikely for Webb but he has shown over the years how much he loves playing in his home state and he could just produce a big performance at huge odds.

UPDATED 12th JUNE 

FIRST ROUND LEADER. - ADAM SCOTT - 90/1 & RYAN FOX 100/1 - BOTH 1pt E/W - 1/5 1st 7. - NO RETURN

With no great weather advantage showing for the AM or PM wave i'll take one from each in the first round leader market starting with Ryan Fox who heads out at 8.13am local time.

The New Zealander has begun to find his feet on the PGA Tour of late with two top tens in his last four starts including seventh in Canada last time out.

A former Dunhill Links winner Fox has long been noted as a player who thrives ion a links style test so he should enjoy the challenges of a firm fast Pinehurst.

He's been quick out of the gates recently and I'll take him to start here strongly.

Scott meanwhile snuck in here at the 11th hour as an alternate having initially missed out in a play off in final qualifying to fellow countryman Cam Davis.

The Aussie was ninth here in 2014 and as another with great links pedigree and of course with a Green Jacket to his name we know he wields his long putter well on this type of test.

No doubt relieved to extend his record of Major Championship attendances to 92 I'll take the Aussie to get out of the gates quickly from his1.58pm local time, tee time.